Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
